By Wes Hyduke, Director of Meteorology Operations
Chances are you're one of the millions who were greatly affected by a major winter storm this past season. You should take cold comfort in knowing this winter has been one for the record books. In fact, whether you're young or old, if you live in the Mid-Atlantic region you will likely not experience another winter of this caliber in your lifetime. Numerous single-season city snowfall records have been broken in this highly-populated region, with some locations accumulating more snow this season than 2005 through 2009 combined!
What has been the culprit of this madness? To blame is a trio of powerhouse synoptic weather features acting in tandem - an active southern storm track, intermittent blasts of Arctic air, and the occasional phasing of northern and southern storms.
El Niño has been responsible for the active southern storm track, as one of the common features of an El Niño winter is the strengthened enhancement of the sub-tropical jetstream. This strong southern jet has allowed more frequent blasts of Arctic Air to slip further south into the Eastern U.S., as evidenced by the record cold that extended from the Southern Plains into south Florida. The jetstream is also responsible for the numerous disturbances that have tracked through the desert Southwest, Southern Plains, and into the Southeast, producing an unusual amount of winter precipitation from the abnormally cold air already in place.
From there, fast-paced northern storms moving from the Plains and through the Ohio Valley merge with the strong southern storms over the Mid-Atlantic region. These storms rapidly strengthen, producing heavy snowfall as they tap into a plethora of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean.These types of storms have been the major reason why several cities - including Washington D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, Wilmington, and Atlantic City - have all broken single-season snowfall records. As of the end of February, most of these cities have nearly tripled or quadrupled their typical average winter snowfalls.
Even more fascinating is the amount of snow each storm produced. Washington D.C, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Wilmington and Atlantic City all average roughly one 12-inch plus snowstorm every decade, or a 1 in 10 chance of an occurrence in any given year. This season, D.C. had two-12 inch plus storms (first time in 111 years) and Baltimore and Philadelphia each had three! The probability of three 12-inch plus snowstorms happening in a given season in these locations is extremely low.
With the active Southern jet stream pattern locked in over the Continental U.S. and three full weeks of winter left in the calendar season, it will be interesting to see how much additional snowfall can be added on to these already impressive seasonal totals. Could there be an unprecedented fourth major snowstorm in the Mid-Atlantic region? Time will tell.
Thanks Wes for the commentary, and certainly what a winter it has been. In addition to the headline grabbing snowfall totals in the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Northeast, often overlooked are the temperature anomalies which have also been historic. For example, Caribou ME had a +10 degree departure from Normal in February, while Dallas TX had a departure of -9 degrees and Atlanta GA came in at -7 degrees.